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Will Linux Always be Stuck in the Minority?

Recently, Steve Ballmer explained why Linux is going to stay in the minority for users. Some people feel that the main reason for this is that Developers aren’t really producing anything for Linux, as compared to OS X and Windows. Still others feel this is preposterous, and that Linux will soon become mainstream. I asked everyone over at FriendFeed what they think. Some of the answers are surprising.

sigh….10 year old thinking – hate to break it to you but it isn’t the OS anymore – Kevin Cearns

stuck in the minority? what world are you living in? linux adoption is growing at a phenomenal rate. – Donald Turnbull

IMO Chris is pretty correct, ‘coz he intended (afais) "Desktop" Linux. If 6 editions of Windows Vista are 5 too much… – Yuvi

Color me stupid – it wasn’t Chris. But, I agree with what the blogger concerned said. – Yuvi

Some good points but rather limited thinking. – Deepak

When it comes to shareware apps today, I wonder if the place to be is not with Windows as the author says, but rather with the iPhone or OS X. The Windows market is so vast it’s hard to get noticed, even with a great app. Now in terms of the OS, I think it still matters. However, I’d add that Linux developers need to make their case today why Linux on a _notebook_ is the thing to do. Easier to manage connectons? Transparent switches between WIFI and EVDO? Longer battery life? Easy ad hoc networks? More and more people have notebooks. That’s where the market is in hardware. Where’s Linux in this? One area where Linux permutations are sprouting up along these lines is with MIDs. Special tuned versions of Linux are being created to support these small devices. If they’re done well, this may be something to watch. – Loren Heiny

its Sad but unfortunately its true. untill we either find a way to make money on linux or Finally get others to leave the greed theres no way linux will come out the shadows off windows & OSX. although more development of WINE will help a LOT – Ro11z

I do believe there needs to be some change to adopt.. Normal users will never understand the "Free as in Speech, Free as in Beer" concept. We need to get rid of the terms open, closed, free, etc.. (whether you care about them or not) Also, not allowing closed source (i.e. Nvidia drivers, Flash, etc) items to be pre-installed is an obvious death wish. Wine should be installed, enabled, and ready to go by default. There are plenty of awesome apps on Linux. Just make them easier to find and install. – Tim Hoeck

Ya lost me when you posted Ballmer spelling out his "thoughts". Gates, okay, but Ballmer – please… That said, as a full time Linux user, you are right in a number of areas. What is wild is that most of them are not that difficult to fix, either. And your point about open or closed source – spot-on. OS for the job getting done, not its license. I could care less how Linux is licensed, as long as I can maintain certain freedoms with it. Good write up. ;) – Matt Hartley

What do you think? Will Linux ever become as “mainstream” as what Windows is, and OS X is quickly becoming? Or is it going to remain something that hard-core Geeks use? Let’s hear your ideas and thoughts.

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20 Comments

Chris Pirillo Optimus Maximus OLED Keyboard Unboxing How Can We Wipe Out Piracy? Have You Tried the New AOL Desktop? What Would You Like to See in Windows 7?Will Linux Always be Stuck in the Minority?

Define “mainstream”. My Tivo runs Linux, those are pretty mainstream DVR’s. My Archos runs Linux, that’s a pretty popular and mainstream media player. I think Mr. Balmer needs to think outside the desktop box and realize the truth.

Until those in the community lose the “RTFM” attitude, Linux will remain on the fringe. The Ubuntu community makes big steps toward making adoption a more user-friendly experience, but there’s a long way to go. You simply can’t have a community full of assholes and expect your product to find a home on Grandma and Grandpa’s desktop.

I love open source; especially the free part. I don’t use linux, but I use a lot of the Linux community software.

Richard Chapman

August 15th, 2008
at 2:50pm

There is an underlying assumption with regards to Linux adoption. That assumption is: All things being the same. Yes, if nothing changes in our world, Linux will continue to grow at its present pace, roughly. But there are real world possibilities out there that could cause Linux to nearly replace Windows. Nobody likes abrupt change but if that change means having a usable computer or none at all, people will make it.

I think Linux has a great chance at becoming mainstream…with some help. Manufacturers like Dell and HP should start offering their computers with a choice of Linux or Windows. Obviously installing Linux on the computer is going to be cheaper, and when people compare the prices, they’re likely to go for the cheaper computer.

I think Linux will become mainstream but mainstream minority. It will definitely, and is, used for business. As far as consumers using it, I will mostly be an operating system for the computer geek next door.

By the way I am writing this in Linux Mint so don’t call me a linux hater.

I think Linux COULD become mainstream, but we have to convince people that it has a lot of potential. And also make installing things much easier.

Leslie Satenstein

August 16th, 2008
at 8:19am

In a few years, it will matter less if the operating system is linux, OSx, another Vista or even VM. What will be important will be in other areas — Hand-helds, and the Web.

Applications will be web based, The same application will run on each of the aforementioned boxes. Some now call it cloud computing, and that is the future.

As for hand-helds, we will not be writing code for them, we will be writing applications to run on them, and the number of hand-helds will by far exceed the number of desktop/laptop computers.

Well linux is certainly light years ahead of where it was a few years ago. Almost every single computer I have run the Ubuntu 8.04 LTS live disk on works great. In fact, I used it last night to copy some files from OLD windows PC’s for a customer. Anyway, I use Ubuntu 8.04 as my primary OS at home although I do have a dualboot with windows. However, it really is only the RARE occasion that I ever need to fool with windows anymore. I hate it after using Ubuntu and Microsoft needs to get this thing fixed and working better so we don’t have to fool with viruses and spyware.

Having said all of this I think that Ubuntu has gone the farthest in the linux community to producing a distribution for “everyone”. It really is easy to use and with a few more manufactures besides Dell supporting it we might see some real consumer uptake on it.

Wine is greatly improved but it still needs a lot more time. I don’t know how long it will be before we will be able to run the majority of Win32 apps on linux without a lot of fuss.

Linux is coming up very quickly seeing as it has no money backing it. There are some great things about it, being free is one of the best. Open source is growing in Mac fairly quickly, and windows it is lacking, but if you look at the amount of UNIX based operating systems, there are most likely more people using UNIX than DOS right now for personal use. I think that is a huge step in making Linux more popular and growing because UNIX makes it easy to port things from one OS to another much easier than from windows to anything else. I think that UNIX is the way of the future, and Linux will grow like mac did. Maybe not as popular, but still a great option, though many think of Linux as an option now!

James Foreman PhD

August 16th, 2008
at 3:46pm

My company and our clients (72%) have switched to Linux. In the present economic conditions. These companies generally indicate they cannot continually afford to upgrade operating systems, software applications, and hardware. While Linux may not be an ideal operating system, it works and is economically more viable. The IT learning curve for Linux is approximately the same as for a single Windows Upgrade.

Jim

Actually Linux is starting to rise up! Dell and many other computer companies are going to try to sell Linux as a COMPLETE replacement to Windows.

Will Linux ever become mainstream? In my opinion it’s hard to tell. Obviously we are talking about it becoming the forefront like Windows is now. I myself am a diehard Linux fan but I have to say that there is a learning curve to it and it also is open-source. Most companies are wanting to make money and most things in Linux are free and fall under the GPL (I’m not saying you can’t charge but by the way I understand the GPL, you can modify the open source programs and release them as your own thing but they remain open-source so what’s to say that there isn’t always a free alternative???). This is a very hard question to ask and a hard one to answer as opinions vary. Personally I think that the way Microsoft is going, it has a fighting chance. But as far as being simple to figure out… No. I’ve used it for 6 months and have only scratched the surface of learning it. It’s great, fun to use, and it’s my preference. But as far as Grandpa Jack and Grandma Moses being able to use it… it’s still a tough operating system :).

Will Toyota and Datsun (Nissan) ever become mainstream? ………..1972

Will Linux ever become mainstream? ……………. 2008

‘Nuff said!

For linux to truly get consumer demand is a few things.
Linux needs a company like Canonical to put a ton of effort into a super clean, simple and shiny interface. Dress it up, and keep it simple.
Linux needs to make life easier with consumer products like mp3 players and cameras, and have great, pretty software to support them. 90% of consumers want true plug and play.
Greater consumer acceptance of web apps. For the browser to truly be king, consumers need to be aware of the level and variety of web applications.
In short, linux needs to be appealing to the mass market, who often don’t base tech decisions on rationale, and don’t care that much about “open” anything, consumers want cheap, pretty, PC’s that work with whatever they buy on sale at walmart, work with their existing stuff, and don’t require tech support.

umm I think never they need to make it really easy to use like easy for grandma and grandpa to use that thing is still too damn hard to use I used ubuntu for like about a month and I was braking my installing softwares. With the stupid commadline and all bull

Linux will grow, but it will never be as powerful as a Mac or a Windows Computer. It just doesn’t have the user base to eat up these big burgers.

Im agreeing with that “Christopher J” said, I don’t think linux will ever become mainstream, there is not enough money be hide it and it’s to fiddly, but it is great because it can run on hand held devices and tivo boxes. I think will come on products atms and petrol station computers but I don’t think I would use it at home.
And I don’t think the linux user base is growing I think the population is growing and more people are using computers so there is a bigger market. The only way you could say that linux is slowly going to over take the market is that it has to be growing quicker the osx or windows.

What alot of people fail to see here is the difference between free software and proprietary software. I just watched a CP video on here where CP was whining about audium crashing occasionally , now with audium ( as its GPL software ) he can run the debugger and determine the problem , then proceed to fix the source code and re-compile the application and hey presto the CP the whiner becomes CP the developer. However with say trillian which is proprietary he could only run the debugger ( perhaps ) , then inform the developers of the problem and hope they resolve the issue , assuming that the issue is with the client in the first place and not any of the dependancies which in turn can only be fixed by yourself if you have the source code and the right to change that code

Linux is a kernel , it is not an operating system , it can be part of your operating system if you desire – indeed I remember an experement to create debian win32 so the question ‘Will Linux Always be Stuck in the Minority?’ is a nonsensical question – I think the question should be ‘Will FLOSS Distributions Always Be Stuck In The Minority’ whether it uses the linux kernel such as ubuntu GNU/Linux or the openBSD kernel such as gentoo/openBSD uses or even the hurd kernel which debian GNU/Hurd uses. The answer ofcourse is ‘Ofcourse They Won’t’ and they arent now in the server market at least so its safe to say FLOSS distributions or ‘Linux’ as the unenlightened refer to them are here to stay.

Free software provides the user with 4 basic freedoms provided by the GPL ( General Public Licence )

Freedom 0: The freedom to run the program for any purpose.
Freedom 1: The freedom to study and modify the program.
Freedom 2: The freedom to copy the program so you can help your neighbour.
Freedom 3: The freedom to improve the program, and release your improvements to the public, so that the whole community benefits.

Without these freedoms you are at the mercy of which ever vendor you choose – a good example of this would be how many windows users wanted DRM in their operating system – you can only guess but my guess is hardly any.
Many people argue that free software and proprietary software should co-exist however it is not enough to be using 99.9% free software – a good example of this recently was the ubuntu intrepid update where on the previous version people with older nvidia graphics cards had a fully working 3d graphics card but as soon as they updated it stopped working because nvidias closed sourced legacy driver wasn’t rebuilt against the new xorg-x11 , we can only speculate as to why they have not but if the driver was free the community could rebuild it without nvidia lifting a finger.
Things like DVD and mp3 support will not work right out of the box (unlike ogg and ogv) because they are patented and the patent holders want cash from each and every user
I’m still waiting for my apology too :)

What Do You Think?